Category: Uncategorized

Coronavirus death distributions – has anything changed?

Today I was wondering whether much had changed since I had a look at some of the initial coronavirus death distributions back in, perhaps, April.

When looking at the age groups of people who “who have died in hospitals in England and either tested positive for COVID-19 [or where] COVID-19 was mentioned on their death certificate” (emphasis added) until mid August 2020 the total numbers for young people are still very low.1

Age group (years) n
Total 29,452
0 – 19 20
20 – 39 212
40 – 59 2,288
60 – 79 11,197
80 15,735

However there was quite a perceptible spike for the excess death rate of the group of 15-44 years across 22 European countries.2

Most of these probably had a pre-existing condition, as this NHS data3 running up to mid July shows:

Age group Yes (cond.) No
Total 27,767 1,379
0 – 19 yrs 16 4
20 – 39 177 33
40 – 59 1,993 265
60 – 79 10,499 569
80 15,082 508

Of these conditions, diabetes is by far the most common, associated with 26% of deaths.4 This rightly raises interest in the lifestyle and environmental factors contributing to diabetes.


  1. https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/ ↩︎
  2. Source: https://perma.cc/7XZP-CTBA ↩︎
  3. https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/ ↩︎
  4. https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/08/COVID-19-total-announced-deaths-13-August-2020-weekly-file.xlsx ↩︎

Is the widespread use of infant formula partly responsible for obesity rates?

Is the widespread use of infant formula partly responsible for obesity rates? The following passage suggests that there might be a link:

“Overfeeding during the postnatal period influences the development of the hypothalamus (such as neuronal connectivity) (Plagemann, 2006). Leptin, a hormone, is a produced by adipocytes and nutrition-induced changes in this hormone during development may result in abnormal hypothalamic development and function (Bouret, 2013; Plagemann, 2006). Animals exposed to postnatal overfeedings display leptin resistance that occurs before the animals become obese suggesting that this hormonal resistance may initiate the development and maintenance of obesity (Glavas et al., 2010).”1


  1. Donna L Mendrick, Anna Mae Diehl, Lisa S Topor, Rodney R Dietert, Yvonne Will, Michele A La Merrill, Sebastien Bouret, Vijayalaskshmi Varma, Kenneth L Hastings, Thaddeus T Schug, Susan G Emeigh Hart, Florence G Burleson, Metabolic Syndrome and Associated Diseases: From the Bench to the Clinic, Toxicological Sciences, Volume 162, Issue 1, March 2018, Pages 36–42, https://doi-org.libproxy.ucl.ac.uk/10.1093/toxsci/kfx233 ↩︎

Mechanical errors

In response to my feedback on their essay, today a student asked me what ‘mechanical errors’ were. While it’s actually not that straight-forward to find a good definition online, I found a nice table that presents different categories of writing errors with their sub-categories. It is quite a useful schema to refer to when giving feedback (only skim-read the remainder of the article, so no endorsement — I’m in particular wondering what the authors mean by “Intelligible errors”, of which they seem to have found none ..).

Table taken from Wu, H.-p. and Garza, E. V. (2014). Types and attributes of english writing errors in the EFL context—a study of error analysis. Journal of Language Teaching & Research, 5(6).

Livin la vida loco2

Want to escape the Google/Apple duopoly in your mobile phone usage and still go soft on the climate in a convenient way? While lots of transport apps, for example the popular Citymapper, complain when you use an Android version (e.g. CrDroid) without the Google framework installed, train ride booking company Loco2‘s app runs well without Google.

Citymapper: there’s work to do!
Loco2: well done!

How to name that *@#! paper?!

Ever wondered how to give your research paper that precise / witty / punchy title? Read no further and leave the confines of this blog to indulge in Giorgos Kallis’ Getting the Title Right (you know how to spot a hyperlink when you see it, no?).  Enjoy!

Is mobile phone and wi-fi radiation something to worry about?

Is mobile phone and wi-fi radiation something to worry about? Here are really interesting comments by scientists on what they want the world to know about the importance of the International electromagnetic field (EMF) Scientist Appeal that calls upon the United Nations and its sub-organizations, the WHO and UNEP, and all U.N. Member States, for greater health protection on EMF exposure.

For people who are not biologists or medical experts it is certainly difficult to assess the risks of mobile phone and wi-fi radiation. That’s why we have experts. Plenty of them seem to agree that more safeguards are in order.

In the European Union “the precautionary principle may be invoked when a phenomenon, product or process may have a dangerous effect, identified by a scientific and objective evaluation, if this evaluation does not allow the risk to be determined with sufficient certainty.” What would need to happen for the European Commission to invoke the precautionary principle when it comes to, by-now ubiquitous, electromagnetic fields? How much happens currently the way it does as a result of lobbying and nobody wanting to spoil the party? Are we even able to seriously imagine a reversal of the rollout of wireless technologies?

 

Links:

Mark Hertsgaard and Mark Dowie (2018): The inconvenient truth about cancer and mobile phones, The Observer, https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jul/14/mobile-phones-cancer-inconvenient-truths

Roxanne Nelson (2014): Children Face Higher Health Risk From Cell Phones, WebMD, https://perma.cc/FN5Z-52U8#1

UPDATE: Joel M. Moskowitz (director of the Center for Family and Community Health in the School of Public Health at the University of California, Berkeley) (2019): We Have No Reason to Believe 5G Is Safe, Scientific American Blog, https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/we-have-no-reason-to-believe-5g-is-safe/

Cyberduck for working remotely on high-performance computing clusters

Are you working remotely with R on a  high-performance computing cluster? Does it not allow you to directly edit your files with R Studio by using R Studio Server?

I have spent endless hours tiresomely navigating my files with Midnight Commander, editing them with Nano from the shell and transferring them by hand with SCP.

Now I have discovered Cyberduck and my life is much easier. I simply edit files via Cyberduck with R Studio or an editor on my desktop, and transfer simply by drag and drop.

How to properly sync Scrivener with the cloud

Many blogs/websites advocate using Scrivener together with Dropbox or other cloud services.

However, when you sync Scrivener with the cloud (such as Dropbox or OX Drive) you risk loosing texts. Scrivener saves the text snippets as separate files and when you have a big project, like a dissertation, you run the danger of not noticing that some of these texts were not correctly synced and you may end up noticing only much later that you are stuck with old versions. Good luck finding the desired versions of the text snippets then!

To minimise this risk, implement the following set-up:

  •  Store your Scrivener document file in a non-syncing folder on your hard disk
  • Automatically save backups to a syncing folder

Solve problems with Bibdesk / Bibtex and Ox Drive

 

Do you use the wonderful open source reference management solution Bibdesk / Bibtex and the synchronisation software Ox Drive, which is, for example, used by the privacy-aware mailbox provider Mailbox.org? Have you ever run into trouble with your .bib (bibliography files) getting messed up or do you want to avoid them getting messed up?

Make sure you always have sufficient free back-up space on your Ox Drive! Otherwise the .bib file gets duplicated, with one version upon another piling up and, on the way, references getting lost ..

However, even then data may get lost, for whatever reason. To avoid this, save your .bib file not in a synced folder but on an ordinary folder on your hard disk. Then set up an automator work flow to make daily backups from the non-synced folder to the synced folder.

#havingtofiddlewiththedetailsjustwhenyouarewritingupyourthesis

Green investment bank loans for electric vehicle taxi co-ops

I live in London, a city with excessively bad air pollution levels. A lot of that is due to car and bus diesel engines. London is also currently in negotiations with Uber, a ride share app/company, on how to structure its business offerings. Many people also claim that Britain needs a development bank, such as the German KfW.

What about picking up all these strands and coming up with an innovative solution for London?

City A.M. reports that “Jeremy Corbyn has said the next Labour government could push for so-called gig economy firms like Uber to be run as co-operatives …”

Sounds like an interesting idea to tackle the problem of new monopolies arising from network effects, such as in the cases of Google, Facebook, and, of course, Uber. How would one incentivize the emergence of such cooperatives? There is certainly a range of options; here I only want to focus on one:

A new green investment bank could offer subsidised loans for the purchase of electric vehicles to people living in London, on the condition that they are going to let ride-share cooperatives use them for a certain number of hours per month. This would bring a number of advantages:

  1. Increased availability of a transport option that contributes less to local air pollution,
  2. subsidies would not benefit a taxi oligopoly but individual purchasers to the extent that they confer a large part of these advantages to taxi drivers in co-ops,
  3. private capital from non-cabbie purchasers of electric vehicles could be crowded in so that cabbies who cannot afford cab acquisition can also take part,
  4. boost for electric vehicle infrastructure in general,
  5. more efficient approach than subsidising individual electric vehicle purchases (let’s not forget that electric vehicles are also resource intensive, so it’s best to only promote them when they are actually used much, rather than being parked all day)

One could calculate the costs to health from local air pollution in monetary terms and then argue that some of that may be saved by the roll-out of electric vehicles.

To recap: we can weave the ideas of green investment banks, co-ops and the tackling of local air pollution together into a powerful new policy approach.

This is, of course, only a really rough sketch and I’m looking forward to hearing more detailed proposals.